World Championship preview plus best bets

 Well after all the weeks of waiting & two weeks of cut throat qualifier action, 32 men head to Sheffield with the dream of holding aloft the famous trophy on May1st.

We reach this point after quite a strange season that has seen some shock results, established stars failing to shine as before, some reclaiming their spots among the elite & unfortunately a fair amount of scandal. All this has had many hailing this as the most open world championship in years, but I just take a different view. I think when it boils down to it, we will once again see the cream rise to the top.

The obvious place to start is with our defending champion Ronnie O'Sullivan. Throughout the whole of the season last year there was just the feeling that Ronnie was building towards a real crack at that record equaling 7th title & so it came to pass as he claimed the title in a bit of a canter.  This year couldn't be more of a contrast. Yes he claimed two invitational event early in the campaign ,but his record in ranking events, apart from a handful of performances here and there, has been awful. As a result of this we have hardly seen him in the last couple of months as those whose consistency was rewarded fought out those lucrative end of season events , added to this he has had a niggling elbow injury which has flared up again in recent weeks.  For anyone else this lack of form & injury would be enough to rule them out as a contender, but the usual rules don't apply to Ronnie (Could we forget his victory in 2013 after a year off?) & I just have a feeling that the last couple of weeks have seen him warm to the prospect of an 8th title. If he is to do he's going to have to be on his game from the off ,with a potential Rd2 clash with Ding & then a quarter final with Williams on the cards, but I actually think that may help focus him & if he comes here in the same frame of mind he did last year , make no mistake ,he'll take some stopping.

Next up & many peoples fancy for the title again this year is Mark Selby. Has there ever been a player more suited to a format & venue as Selby is the Crucible? Over the long matches time & time again he has shown an ability to take complete control of a match & have it played solely on his terms. After some indifferent form at times this season he has seemed in recent times to be just coming to the boil nicely & he will be coming here quietly confident that he can add a 5th title to his cv. Much like Ronnie last year , in Selby's most recent victory here in 2021, he just seemed destined to win the title from a long way out & looking at the draw here, I just can't see him not at least reaching the semi finals. What happens there will very much depend on what happens in the other quarter of the draw.

In any other tournament looking at the draw you would anticipating a Mark Allen v Nail Robertson Q/F, but such has been these two stars records at The Crucible, you would be hard pressed to think they will both get there. Allen was the revelation in the early season after making some major lifestyle changes over the summer. He joined the very exclusive club to have claimed three ranking titles in the one season, but his results have tapered off a bit recently & you wonder if those early exertions have taken their toll. 

Tiredness shouldn't be an excuse for Robertson who,  having made the decision to be more selective with his events this season, was left playing catch up for the rest of & never really got there. His awful record here is well touted, but surely that has to change some time & a not unfavorable draw could see him reach the coveted single table set up for the first time since he won the title in 2010. A potential last 4  clash with Selby over three days  would be something to savour.

If recent form is any indication of your chances, then Shaun Murphy has to on anyone's list. Two really impressive tournament wins over the last couple of months will see the 2005 champ come here full of confidence. & no player feeds off momentum quite the way Murphy does.

The toughest section of the draw pitches Trump v McGill & Lisowski v Saengkham. One thing for sure here is none of these guys will need reminding where they are. That said I'd still expect Trump to come through here. The 2019 champ has had a poor season by his standards & even his win in The Masters was far from vintage. He did come here last season in similar form & did beat McGill in rd2 on his way to the final. If he gets through this "group of death" he could be rewarded with a Last 8 clash with Murphy.

Others worth a mention are of course former multiple winners John Higgins & Mark Williams , but I think another title is probably beyond them. Likewise Kyren Wilson will be on  many peoples shortlist , but I just don't see him figuring in the final count.

So who do I think will win? Well in spite of everything, I just think Ronnie has an 8th title in him. That long awaited documentary may well need a sequel! 

Best bets

Ronnie to win the title 4/1

Neil Robertson 7/1 e/w 1/2 1-2

Round 1 Lucky 15 : David Gilbert 11/10, Hossein Vafaei 6/4, Anthony McGill 21/10, Robert Milkins 8/11

                                   

The Masters - Where Are We Now ?

 On January 6th 2013 David Bowie shocked the world by releasing a new song that he had recorded in complete secrecy. A new album would follow shortly afterwards & it would be lauded by critics & fans alike as a marvelous return to form for the ever illusive artist. It was that first song though that kept coming to mind as I watched The Masters unfold last week.

"Where Are We Now?"

Well firstly lets start with the positives. Judd Trump last night won a second Masters title with a 10-8 victory over Mark Williams. In a  wonderful final, that at various times swung one way then the other, it was Trump who held his nerve at the business end to claim his 4th Triple Crown. In doing so Trump again showed the all round aspects of his game that he has developed over the last number of years. The Trump of even 5 years ago would not have won that final. He will now be hoping this victory proves to be a much a springboard to his career as his victory here in 2019 was.

Unfortunately though, great and all an occasion as yesterday was, there is a cloud hanging over the sport at the moment which could have major repercussions for the sport for years to come.

I refer of course to the the match fixing/betting scandal that has engulfed the sport with 10 tour professionals currently suspended pending the conclusion of the investigations ,this number includes top stars Yan Bingtao & Zhou Xintong. World snooker chairman Jason Ferguson has stated that these lengthy & thorough investigations are nearing their conclusion & not all players will face the same charges, but even at that, we are still a long way from reaching an end to this saga.

Exactly what all this will mean going forward is impossible to tell. The global pandemic has already left us with no tournaments in China for the last 3 years & although things are opening up there again, we can't be sure, should the investigation conclude that these 10 Chinese players are guilty, just how that would be received by the authorities over there. This coupled with Dings recent comments, which were before this all broke, you get the feeling the snooker boom in China could be coming to an end & a return to what we had pre Covid is far certain.

The other thing highlighted by potential long term absence of these players, is again the real lack of young talent breaking through in the game. In The Masters, with a field that comprised of the top 16 players over the past two seasons, the youngest opponent that Judd faced this week was 42yr old Ryan Day, Indeed it would have been hard to avoid a 40 something in a draw that included 9 of them. The youngest player was Luca Brecel at 27. 

By contrast I had a look at The Masters that took place at the time that Bowie song was released. That tournament in January 2013 was won by a 29 yr old Mark Selby & the oldest participant was Mark Davis aged 40. Also there, was a 23 year old Judd Trump, who already had one world final appearance & a UK Championship title to his name. 10 years on we are yet to see another talent emerge who even threatens to reach the levels Judd has.

The fact is we have relied on the "class of '92" for a long time now, but with them all now heading towards their late 40's we can't continue to expect them to carry the sport on their shoulders. Behind them the likes of Robertson, Selby & Murphy are also now entering the autumn of their careers & the next generation of Trump ,Allen & Ding are all now older than greats like Davis & Hendry were when their best days were behind them. After that I fail to see where the next champions are going to come from.

All in all we are facing in to uncertain times & the prospect of a very hard decade to come. Hopefully some real stars emerge soon & I suppose one thing that the last few seasons have shown its that, if you do establish yourself, you can have a lot longer a sporting career than the vast majority of  professionals in other sports.